The inevitable secession of Southern Sudan and its repercussion to other African states, in particular to Ethiopia.

By W. Yilma September 25, 2010

As we are following the various mass Medias outlets, Southern Sudanese people will conduct in near future referendum which will determine their future either, to stay as part of Sudan or to secede and become a new independent country. Scrutinizing the information gathered from different sources, it is inevitable that Southern Sudan will be a new country in Eastern Africa, which I believe will be a hot spot for another continues conflicts in the area. If not properly handling the issue of referendum, the conflict will engulf the entire eastern African states. As an African and in particular as an Ethiopian, I sense the inevitable danger in which potentially could affect Ethiopia.

To give short information about the area, Southern Sudan is a little more than half the size of Ethiopia. It is an agrarian country in which more than 90% of the populations are practicing agriculture, mainly livestock rearing, and nomadic way of life. The agricultural output is under subsistence. Due to ethnic divisions, inter and cross border (mainly with people living in western and southern part of Ethiopia) conflict is a daily life for most of the population living in this area (mainly for searching of grazing land and cattle rustling). This conflict is extended further to Kenya and Uganda in areas where pastoralists are inhabited. Other than petroleum, S. Sudan is rich in natural resources, but under exploited due to poor infrastructure and the civil war.

The conflicts between the Southern and Northern Sudan have various causes among which, political, economic and religion are the dominant factors that ignited the war. However, unjustified and open interferences of foreign actors also plaid a greater role in aggravating the conflict between the two.

To my understanding, the reasons why some western countries, including America are actively involved in S.Sudan internal affairs are the following:

1. Economic interest, mainly, the huge economic potentials, including the natural resources, and oil reserve.

2. The notion, that S.Sudaness people are Christian. Many people think that S.Sudaness people are Christian. I do think on the opposite (although the issue is not important to raise here). Other than traditional belief (which varies inline of each ethnic group psychological makeup) the vast majority of S. Sudan population does not have religion at all. Christianity (not more than 10% of the population nominally considering themselves as Christians) is limited in areas where missionaries are stationed and providing humanitarian aid. Why the western countries are magnifying this issue is simply to attract the attention from their people, and to justify their ill fated policy of interference.

3. Long term National interest, to create persistent conflict by dividing the region and creating small and weak countries in the region (Ethiopia is not immune to this conspiracy)

4. The humanitarian cost due to long lasting war between north and south.

The elite politics played by irresponsible African “politicians” is the result of this unfortunate outcome, not only for Suddenness, but also for the entire eastern African people (the existing political turmoil in the region is a witness to this fact). Today, it is Sudan, but tomorrows it will be a turn of other African countries. In general, I do not understand why the powerful countries like USA are unwisely interfering in other people internal affairs. They can play a constructive and a leading role in the world if they respected other peoples thought, ideas, culture, psychological makeup, values, and history. Getting information only from corrupt organizations or individual politicians or interested groups is leading USA to play a destructive role in the world.

The USA officially accepted in advance the complete secession of Southern Sudan and actively engaging in finalizing the divorce issue between the north and southern people of Sudan. I do not understand for how long the African elites are playing a dirty game to their own people by following wrong and dangerous political courses drafted by foreign powers? It is not secession that could give poor African people bread to feed their empty belly or bring peace to the wonder full world we all are living. Contrary, it is the willingness and the ability of the elite politician to make peace that could give a chance to poor African to stand by their own. What did the elite politician feel when they see their follow country men, women, old and young are begging for bread just simply because of perusing wrong political courses for a decade’s.

Any referendum in undemocratic and where illiteracy rate is more than >80 % will never bring lasting and sustainable peace to any societies. Especially where people are under the barrel of the gun, it is unthinkable to implement rules of law, democracy, justice, and multi dimensional socio-economic as well as cultural progress. The referendum may satisfy only those elites who fought in the name of the mass and their western supporters. The ordinary people will not be benefited from the referendum the same as they have never been benefited from the war. In both situations, the elites are the only beneficiaries from pre or post referendum. The Eritrean referendum is a witness to confirm this fact. Talking about people’s democracy is an empty slogan for the so-called freedom fighters. This is a universal fact at the present time.

The western countries understood the consequences and some even knew the worst scenario to the indigenous population after the referendum. However, as long as they keep their national interest, the suffering of the third world people are secondary for them. It is sad to see when the modern elite politician of black African is dragging their people and country back into neo-colonialism era. It would have been better for the suddenness people to solve their internal problems by themselves rather than immersing themselves in to the situation where neither the government nor the rebel s succeeded. During the colonial era, Africa is the land of many heroes who sacrifice their life for emancipation of their people. What is contrary to the past is that at present time Africa is full of opportunistic and power mongering intellectuals whose mission is to sell their country and people back to modern slavery to satisfy their own personal interest. For some African elites power is more than the life of millions. Similarly, for some western countries and USA, the life of millions is not worthy as long as they keep their national interest. When I said this I am not denying the atrocity the S.Sudaness peoples are passing through. However, if there is a willingness to solve problems there is always a way-out.

I am not scrutinizing here the stands of African countries regarding the outcome of the Southern Sudan referendum. If African union is an effective organization and stands for the unity and for the collective interest of its member states, it should take stand to create conducive atmosphere for both south and north suddenness to compromise and to sustain their unity as one country. Secession is not an end by itself to bring peace, and economic prosperity. There are other options on the table to solve problems. It is foolishness to stand and look the situation indifferently. Who knows tomorrow, the situation could spillover and could affect the entire eastern African countries?

Due to the remoteness and inaccessibility of the S.Sudan it will be hard for the new S.sudaness government to control effectively its vast territory. There are many places in S. Sudan no go areas or insecurity. Hence, any groups conspired against Ethiopia or other neighboring countries could get good opportunity to exploit the situation. We should not be ignored the long historical ties between SPLA and the Eritrean government (Shabia) and this could encourage Shabia to open a third front against Ethiopia. The possibility of getting space, for any arming insurgency opposing the Ethiopian unity is another concern.

It seems that the game was over, and it is inevitable that S.Sudan will be another neighbor to Ethiopia. What I am concerning now is about my country Ethiopia. I am not sure the degree of probability, but there is an assumption that what will be happening in Sudan have a potential to spillover to Ethiopia. That is the core issue we Ethiopian should be worried about. Most of the territory between Ethiopia and Sudan is not demarcated properly. Beside this there is unity and disunity between people living across the two borders, due to similarity or differences in psychological make- up and culture. In some instances for some people living around the border it is easy to have dual citizenship. Cattle rustling are rampant between people living within and across the border. Traditionally, people are not trusted each other. People usually pay attention to the ideas that create conflict and mistrust than ideas that could bring peace, cooperation, and understanding between different people and nations. The Ethio-Eritrean conflict is an example.

To mention here the repercussion of the Southern Sudan independence is beyond the scope of my ability. However, I hereby proposed some leman ideas for interesting parties to discuss further and to give more information and ideas for our readers:

To what extent or how the independent of S.Sudan will affect the geo-political situation of the whole eastern Africa countries? What impact could it has on Ethiopia? Is Ethiopia get an advantage from this outcomes or she became the next victim of the western powers conspiracy? Take into consideration the relationship of SPLA to the neighboring countries. As we all know, the relationship of the SPLA to the neighboring countries especially to Ethiopia shows flip flopping from time to time.

If S.Sudan “government” is not smart enough, I am afraid the newly emerged country will be a banana republic, especially to America as she shared the biggest roll in preparing the succession.

Lastly, what I want to stress here is that what lesson we Ethiopian, especially the government and the oppositions at large learn from Sudan present situation? To me the present Sudan situation should be an arming to think twice before taking any action that could endanger Ethiopian unity and territorial integrity. We need to take lesson from our neighbors, and we have to have the ability to solve our political differences in civilized manner. The problems in Somalia and Sudan are more than enough for Eastern Africa. We should stop dancing with the wolf and we have to close the loop holes that give chance to foreigners to interfere in our internal affairs. Today is Sudan, who knows, tomorrow it could be our turn if we poorly handling our internal problems. If Western capitals and Washington are the center of policy making for the third world, what is our guarantee that the same thing will not be happened in our home?

GOD bless Ethiopia